A longa marcha do Grupo Wagner

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Após o susto entre os dias 23 e 24 de junho, a Rússia dorme tranquila. Prigozhin, líder do Grupo Wagner foi exilado na Belarus junto à hóstia que o acompanhou em “sua marcha pela justiça”. Aleksandr Lukashenko, presidente da Belarus, aglutina mais influência, saindo como negociador entre o Kremlin e os mercenários. Já Putin, apesar da crise, conseguiu contornar a obliteração de um grupo considerado como herói pelo povo russo. E assim, todos viveram “felizes para sempre”. Nós, do portal Eixo Meridional, acreditamos que a situação é muito diferente do que é veiculado. 

O que sabemos?

Nos últimos dias, alguns grupos de mídia euro-estadunidenses se apressaram em anunciar não só a rebelião armada, mas também um “golpe de Estado” que estaria em andamento na Rússia, em referência ao imbróglio entre as forças mercenárias do Grupo Wagner e o Ministério da Defesa da Rússia. Estranhamente, essa insurreição teria sido iniciada com o bombardeio de posições ocupadas pelos mercenários, localizadas na retaguarda do front do Oblast de Donetsk. Utilizando um vídeo como evidência do “bombardeio”, que por sua vez não revelava conclusivamente o autor do ataque, Prigozhin anunciou que iria marchar até o centro de comando em Rostov do Don para depor o atual Ministro da defesa, Serguei Shoigu, além de “todos aqueles que mentiram sobre a guerra”. Em momento nenhum, o líder do Grupo Wagner dirige sua ira ao presidente Putin, ou insinua qualquer golpe de Estado.

A tomada de Rostov foi rápida, sem nenhuma baixa em ambos os lados. Tudo televisionado, inclusive o diálogo de Prigozhin com os oficiais detidos no centro de comando. Durante a ocupação, o Estado russo se movimentou. Em vídeo, Prigozhin comentou sobre a derrubada de dois helicópteros de combate que foram enviados contra as posições do Grupo Wagner (até agora não foi fornecida nenhuma evidência contundente da morte dos pilotos ou da destruição dos helicópteros em combate contra os mercenários).

A tomada de Rostov possuiria os seguintes objetivos: 

  1. “assegurar as posições do Grupo Wagner” que, segundo Prigozhin, haviam sido bombardeadas seguindo ordens do ministro da defesa;
  2. capturar Serguei Shoigu, o ministro da defesa, além do alto comando russo.

Após falhar em capturar Shoigu, que permaneceu “desaparecido” pelas 24h seguintes, Prigozhin arregimentou o contingente que o acompanhou até Rostov e o subdividiu em colunas. As estimativas mais assanhadas apontam que, ao todo, as colunas do grupo de mercenários somavam cerca de 25.000 homens. No entanto, como foi apontado por fontes do próprio Ministério da Defesa, parte desses homens estava em outras localidades nas quais o Grupo Wagner exerce suas atividades, tais quais a República Centro Africana, Sudão do Sul, Síria e a própria Ucrânia. Ou seja, algumas colunas que, somadas compunham menos que 25.000 homens, estariam marchando na direção de Moscow diretamente de Rostov do Don, cidades separadas por mais de 1076 km de rodovia. 

Durante a rebelião, figuras como o general Sergei Surovikin — ponte entre o Grupo Wagner e o alto comando russo — e o próprio Putin, anunciaram em rede nacional a “traição” do grupo mercenário, que não parou sua movimentação na direção da capital, que neste momento estava sendo fortificada. No entanto, antes de qualquer uma das colunas do Grupo Wagner adentrarem em Moscou, negociações se iniciaram. Os mercenários, então, se apoderaram da cidade de Kashira. Em poucas horas, o bielorrússo Aleksandr Lukashenko, coincidentemente um grande aliado político de Putin, tal qual Prigozhin, negociou uma saída mediada entre os mercenários e o Kremlim. Todas as acusações criminais levantadas contra os membros do Grupo Wagner e, em especial Prigozhin, foram retiradas. Além disso, o líder mercenário conquistou um tranquilo exílio em Belarus junto de todos os homens que participaram da “marcha pela justiça” (nome dado pelo próprio Prigozhin ao deslocamento de Rostov do Don até Kashira). Não só isso, os membros do Grupo Wagner que não participaram da rebelião serão absorvidos pelas forças regulares russas e o Ministério da Defesa passará por “reformas” que ainda carecem esclarecimento. Ao fim, a insurreição wagneriana começou e terminou entre o dia 23 e 24 de junho. Estes são os fatos. 

O que podemos concluir, no momento, limita-se a dizer que: 

  1. o que ocorreu não foi um golpe de Estado, os objetivos do Grupo Wagner não estavam vinculados à tomada do poder, seja da parte deles, ou de qualquer outro setor;
  2. os meios utilizados (menos de 25.000 homens) eram incapazes de alcançar qualquer resultado para além da sua própria aniquilação;
  3. Prigozhin é um histórico aliado de Putin, nunca se colocou contra o presidente, até mesmo na dita rebelião suas ações eram direcionadas a Shoigu, ministro da defesa e o alto comando russo;
  4. Putin realizou uma declaração em rede nacional definindo as ações do grupo Wagner contra o ministério da defesa como “traição”, mas também pactuou que não haverá nenhuma repercussão criminal decorrente da rebelião;
  5. até o presente momento não há nenhuma prova contundente de danos causados pelo Grupo Wagner, que seria típico de uma rebelião armada, aos equipamentos, pessoal e infraestrutura das forças armadas russas;
  6. ao fim, o que vemos só pode ser definido como uma rebelião extremamente pacífica — como o próprio Prigozhin classificou, “um protesto armado” — ou, como uma grande farsa.

A bruma que cobre os acontecimentos da chamada “rebelião” é tão densa que pode ser cortada com uma faca. Mas, podemos dizer com certeza que há muito mais por trás dos acontecimentos, se comparado ao que foi divulgado. Cui bono? Quem se beneficia dessa confusão? Seria tudo uma grande “maskirovka” (dissimulação)? Perguntas como: se o general Sergei Surovikin está ou não preso por participar da rebelião e quais serão as “mudanças” anunciadas no Ministério da Defesa, ainda não foram respondidas e a depender dessas respostas, mais luz será jogada neste caso ainda em aberto.

Leonardo Soares Filho

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247 thoughts on “A longa marcha do Grupo Wagner”

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